Monetary Policy, Firm Size And Equity Returns In An Emerging Market: Panel Evidence Of Malaysia

The present study provides new empirical evidence on the effects of monetary policy shocks (domestic and international monetary policy) on equity returns in an emerging economy (i.e., Malaysia) for 1990–2008 using firm-level data. Using an augmented Fama-French (1992, 1996) multifactor model, empirical results based on system GMM estimations and a sample of 449 firms shows that firms' stock returns responded negatively to monetary policy shocks. Moreover, the effect of domestic monetary policy shocks also have differential effects, with a statistically significant impact on small firms' equity returns but not on large firms' stock returns. The effect of international monetary policy upon equity returns is also heterogeneous by firm size; significant effects were observed for the equity returns of large firms but not for a case of small firms

Institutions and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Malaysia: empirical evidence using ARDL model

Since 1990’s, institution factors have been regarded as playing important roles in stimulating foreign direct investments (FDI). However, empirical studies on their importance in affecting FDI are still lacking especially for small open economies. This paper attempts to investigate the role of institutions upon the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in a small open economy of Malaysia. Using bounds testing approach (ARDL model), the empirical findings reveal that there exists a long run relationship among FDI and the institution variables. Specifically, several institution variables namely government stability, bureaucracy, and corruption are found to play prominent roles in influencing the inflow of FDI. Thus, in attracting foreign investors, implementing FDI-friendly policies by providing and maintaining the quality of domestic institutions would be beneficial to Malaysian economic growth.Institutions; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); ARDL

Relative price variability and inflation: empirical evidence in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak

This study investigates the relationship between relative price variability and inflation in three regions in Malaysia namely Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak. Using monthly time series data from January 1970 until Mac 2005, this study utilizes the non-linear time series technique of STAR and LSTAR models. Based on the empirical evidence, it is clearly shown that the relative price variability has non-linear characteristic. In addition, inflation is also significant and positively related to influence the relative price variability in all the three regions. The empirical findings also reveal that the relationship between the relative price variability and inflation is in the form of non-linear. The findings support the menu-cost theory which stipulates that the variability of price will increase when there is an increase in the general price level. Beside that, the stochastic components of relative price variability have shown persistency in all the regions. The study implies that the price control policy and the implementation of monetary policy should also be focused to control relative price stability among the group of goods.relative price variability; inflation; STAR; ESTAR

Oil price shocks, global economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and stock price in Malaysia: Factor augmented VAR approach

This article examines the impacts of the geopolitical risk, global economic policy uncertainty, and oil price shocks on stock prices in Malaysia using factor augmented SVAR approach. The findings show that while geopolitical risk has no significant direct impacts on the overall stock market, its indirect impacts are significant and transmitted through the global economic policy uncertainty and oil shocks channels. Global economic policy uncertainty exerts negative effects on the overall stock market and its impacts are magnified by geopolitical risk. Oil related shocks exhibit asymmetric effects on both the aggregated and sectoral stock price. The impacts of oil demand shock on stock price are amplified by global economic uncertainty factor whereas oil supply shocks impacts are amplified by the geopolitical risk factor. At sectoral level, the impacts of all the global shocks vary across different sectors and time. The overall findings imply that global economic policy uncertainty and oil demand shock factors are systematic risk factors that can be employed to forecast stock market returns. The findings also provide implications for policymakers to regulate markets in maintaining financial stability and investors to react to future shocks in these global economic factors with regard to the risks and opportunities

Monetary policy shocks, financial constraints and firm-level equity return: panel evidence

The present paper investigates the effect of monetary policy shocks upon the equity returns of financially constrained and less-constrained firms in Malaysia for the 1990-2008 period using firm-level data. Monetary policy shocks are generated via a recursive structural VAR (SVAR) identification scheme that allows the monetary authority to set the overnight interbank rate after observing the current value of world oil price, foreign income, foreign monetary policy, domestic output and inflation. The Malaysian firms examined are divided into two categories based upon the cash flow to income ratio, namely financially constrained and financially less-constrained. After augmenting the Fama and French (1992, 1996) multifactor model using a dynamic panel data approach, the results reveal that equity returns of financially constrained firms are more affected by domestic monetary policy than the returns of less constrained firms. Meanwhile, international monetary policy shocks significantly influence the equity returns of financially less-constrained firms, but not those of financially constrained firms

Dasar fiskal terhadap perbelanjaan swasta: analisis SVAR di Malaysia

Bermula dengan episod belanjawan defisit yang berpanjangan sejak tahun 1998 di NSM, menunjukkan kutipan hasil cukai kerajaan tidak berupaya untuk menampung perbelanjaan yang menyebabkan kerajaan perlu memikirkan sumber pembiayaan alternatif seperti melalui terbitan bon. Mengikut teori dana boleh pinjam, terbitan bon kerajaan menyebabkan penurunan harga bon dan seterusnya cenderung meningkatkan kadar bunga pasaran. Kenaikan kadar bunga pasaran menyebabkan kos dana meningkat yang menyebabkan firma cenderung mengecilkan saiz pelaburan. Ini menyebabkan peningkatan perbelanjaan kerajaan yang dibiayai melalui terbitan bon tidak dapat memberikan kesan sepenuhnya kepada peningkatan pendapatan negara malahan mewujudkan kesan asakan keluar ke atas pelaburan swasta. Kertas ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji keberkesanan dasar fiskal iaitu kejutan positif perbelanjaan kerajaan dan hasil kerajaan (cukai) terhadap pelaburan swasta di Malaysia. Kajian ini menggunakan model SVAR (Structural Vector Autoregressive) dalam ekonomi terbuka bersaiz kecil untuk mengenal pasti tindak balas dinamik kejutan dasar fiskal terhadap pelaburan swasta. Data kajian adalah data siri masa sukuan bagi tempoh 1991:1-2016:3. Analisis fungsi tindak balas impulse dan penguraian varian telah digunakan untuk mengupas keberkesanan dasar fiskal terhadap perbelanjaan swasta. Hasil kajian menunjukkan kesan kejutan perbelanjaan kerajaan mewujudkan kesan asakan keluar terhadap pelaburan swasta manakala bagi penggunaan swasta mengalami kesan positif. Bagi kesan kejutan hasil cukai kerajaan menunjukkan keputusan yang sama iaitu pelaburan swasta mengalami kesan negatif manakala penggunaan swasta mengalami kesan positif

Cadangan model teoritikal bagi menilai kecekapan pelaburan dalam pembangunan Tanah Rizab Melayu

The Malay Reserve (land) accounts for 33.55% of productive land in Malaysia. Unfortunately, several studies have shown that the owners of such a massive source of productive resource are not able to develop its full economic potential. The solution to this inefficient utilisation of resource requires a theory capable of explaining the source of the problem. Even though several ideas have been put forward to explain this phenomenon, few if any, are based on rigorous economic theory. This paper proposes a simple (but rigorous) theory to explain why economically rational owners of the Malay Reserve land make suboptimal investment for the development of their land. In doing so, the theory explains the underdevelopment of the Malay Reserve land. It was found that transaction cost and opportunism arising from multiple ownership and small numbers bargaining are the major factors contributing to underdevelopment of Malay Reserve land

The Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy? The Panel Evidence from Egypt

This paper examines the relevance of the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Egypt using bank-level data. Previous empirical studies in Egypt that used macro-level data have not supported the relevance of the bank lending channel. However, using a sample of 32 commercial banks for the period from 1998 until 2011 and a dynamic panel GMM technique, the empirical findings revealed the relevance of the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Egypt. Moreover, there is a heterogeneity effect of monetary policy on bank loans according to bank size, in which the small banks are more affected during a monetary contraction than larger banks. This finding signals that the monetary authorities in Egypt should take cognizance of the stability of interest rates in order to stabilize the bank loan supply.      

Relative price effects of monetary policy shock in Malaysia: a SVAR study

Studies on Malaysia monetary policy mostly examine the effect of monetary policy change on output and inflation in aggregate terms. While sectoral output effects of monetary policy have also been investigated, there is however a lack in the study on the effect of policy change on disaggregated inflation. This paper attempts to examine the later issue by employing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. By estimating the model separately for each sub-group of Malaysian consumer price index, we find that a modest monetary policy shock results in varying degree of responses in disaggregated inflation. In other words, some sub-group inflation react instantly while others respond sluggishly to a monetary policy shock. In contrast to aggregate inflation response, there is also evidence of price puzzle. The results give some insight to monetary authority on how to control inflation in aggregate as well as in disaggregate terms and in turn manage the cost of living issues in Malaysia

Causes of tax evasion and their relative contribution in Malaysia: an artificial neural network method analysis

Tax is one means of financing government expenditures and plays an important role in increasing government revenue. The amount of tax collected actually depends on the effectiveness of the tax system in an economy. When a taxation system is ineffective, many people will exploit the situation to avoid paying tax and tax evasion will become popular. In the presence of tax evasion, the government cannot allocate revenue for programs or provide desirable social services. Realizing the significant impact of tax evasion on the economy, the present study aims to determine the main factors that result in tax evasion and their relative importance. The present study employs an artificial neural network (ANN) methodology on Malaysian data for the period between 1963 and 2011. The results show that tax burden, size of the government and inflation rate have positive effects on tax evasion. The income of taxpayers and trade openness, however, has negative effects on tax evasion. The results also reveal that the income of the taxpayer has a more significant relationship with levels of tax evasion than the other causes of tax evasion examined in the present study